Nightmare scenario if Greece defaults on loans

(AGI) Rome, June 18 - Greece will default on July 1 unless itpays back the 1.6 billion euros it owes, said the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF). It said it does not intend to grant Athensa grace period. So what will happen then? According to experts,the default will trigger great upheavals across financialmarkets, which cannot be accurately predicted as there is noprecedent. Fears of a "Grexit" will undoubtedly provoke a further runon the banks by Greek savers, which has already begun, andauthorities will be forced to bring in harsh controls onbanking transactions to stop a flight of capital. The defaultis likely to concern the unpaid debt to the IMF and will notautomatically apply to its debt with the European Union. Another question concerns the emergency liquidity assistance(known as ELA) provided by the European Central Bank to Greekbanks. It constitutes the only real source of income thatAthens can count on. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised theceiling of the ELA by 1.1 billion euros to 84.1 billion euroson Wednesday. In case of default, the bank could freeze orbring down the ceiling on emergency loans to banks or it couldincrease the "haircut", the discount it applies to thecollateral that Greek banks use to guarantee the loans. In Julyand August the Greek government will have to renew 6.8 billioneuros worth of bonds held by the ECB. The European Union couldapply to suspend paying funds allocated to Greece, or Athenscould apply for humanitarian aid from Brussels or Moscow andBeijing. The S&P international credit rating agency has alreadydowngraded Greek bonds to "CCC", one notch above junk, becauseof fears of a default. .