Nightmare scenario if Greece defaults on loans

(AGI) Rome, June 18 - Greece will default on July 1 unless itpays back the 1.6 billion euros it owes, said the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF). It said it does not intend to grant Athensa grace period. So what will happen then? According to experts,the default will trigger great upheavals across financialmarkets, which cannot be accurately predicted as there is noprecedent. Fears of a "Grexit" will undoubtedly provoke afurther run on the banks by Greek savers, which has alreadybegun, and authorities will be forced to bring in harshcontrols on banking transactions to

(AGI) Rome, June 18 - Greece will default on July 1 unless itpays back the 1.6 billion euros it owes, said the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF). It said it does not intend to grant Athensa grace period. So what will happen then? According to experts,the default will trigger great upheavals across financialmarkets, which cannot be accurately predicted as there is noprecedent. Fears of a "Grexit" will undoubtedly provoke afurther run on the banks by Greek savers, which has alreadybegun, and authorities will be forced to bring in harshcontrols on banking transactions to stop a flight of capital.The default is likely to concern the unpaid debt to the IMF andwill not automatically apply to its debt with the EuropeanUnion. Another question concerns the emergency liquidityassistance (known as ELA) provided by the European Central Bankto Greek banks. It constitutes the only real source of incomethat Athens can count on. The European Central Bank (ECB)raised the ceiling of the ELA by 1.1 billion euros to 84.1billion euros on Wednesday. In case of default, the bank couldfreeze or bring down the ceiling on emergency loans to banks orit could increase the "haircut", the discount it applies to thecollateral that Greek banks use to guarantee the loans. In Julyand August the Greek government will have to renew 6.8 billioneuros worth of bonds held by the ECB. The European Union couldapply to suspend paying funds allocated to Greece, or Athenscould apply for humanitarian aid from Brussels or Moscow andBeijing. The S&P international credit rating agency hasalready downgraded Greek bonds to "CCC", one notch above junk,because of fears of a default.. .

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